The Lakers are looking to turn things around tonight against a hot Utah team. Los Angeles (3-7) and Utah (7-3) have been trending in opposite directions recently, but will both finish their regular seasons with lots to be happy about.

Sunday vs Sacramento

A performance similar to what the Lakers brought to the court Sunday won’t do it. In that game, LA’s shooters struggled to shoot the ball, which was a bad combination with missing Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram. Julius Randle didn’t add much as a playmaker, which was one area we had been looking out for. Zero assists, one pass out and no points from his combined 10 post up, isolation, and pick and roll ball handler possessions. He’ll need to step it up against Utah for the Lakers to have a chance.

Without several key players, the team went to a 9-man rotation. The bench unit didn’t interchange with the starters much. There was never more than one non-starter playing with the starting group, other than when Julius Randle picked up his third foul in the second quarter. Alex Caruso and Tyler Ennis split point guard duties, subbing in and out for the game. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Josh Hart split shooting guard duties and also played some minutes at the 3, giving Kyle Kuzma (who played 39 minutes) some occasional rest. Ivica Zubac and Channing Frye added minutes as bigs.

Tonight at Utah

Tonight’s opponent boasts a rookie of the year candidate and the 3rd best defensive rating of all teams. Donovan Mitchell is one of only six rookies to be scoring more points per game than expected, based on their possession distribution and volume. Defense is a team game, but Mitchell will likely spend some time opposite of proud Villanova alumnus, Josh hart, who is another of those six rookies scoring more than expected (can you name the other four?). Hart’s return to play Sunday after missing a month was much needed. He was a little rust from long range (shot 1/5), but his 13 point and 13 rebound game was about as Josh Hart as it gets.

Key Jazz Players

Mitchell is having a fantastic season for a rookie guard. He’s nearly average across the board in play types (this is a compliment), and is already near the top of the league as a spot up scorer. He’s sixth in efficiency of the 84 players who have at least three spot up possessions per game, and is great catching and shooting, pulling up, and getting to the rim. His ability to add lots of value in one area and be about average everywhere else is about all you can ask a rookie guard. He’ll be a player to watch. He has ups and downs, like all rookies. On his ups, he’s electric. On his downs, he’s still a decent piece in Utah’s offensive system. But it’ll take LA holding his scoring down to win this game.

Ideally, Ricky Rubio will be forced to score and LA won’t over rotate and leave great shooters like Joe Ingles or Mitchell open. Rubio has been one of the league’s worst offensive scoring players by impact compared to expectation, and will be matched up with Alex Caruso, who has actually had a defensive points over expectation value better than 90% of the NBA. Even Ennis, who hears quite a bit of distaste from fans, has been close to average. Staying in front of Rubio will be important to slowing down an offense that operates off of a lot of facilitation from him.

Key Areas

One area that may play a large role for both teams is transition, an area of usual strength for the Lakers. Los Angeles has the 6th highest turnover percentage on offense and Utah is 7th. Utah’s transition offense typically adds 16 points per game, far lower than the 23 per game LA generates while running. But Utah’s transition attack is the 7th most efficient of any team. With LA missing Lonzo and Ingram, two normal playmakers, and being a high turnover team facing a defense that generates a lot of turnovers (8th most), we might see the fast break game play a larger role than normal for the Jazz. Utah also keeps teams out of transition better than all but Milwaukee, having just 12.4% of their total defensive possessions be in transition.

Another area LA can usually get a boost from is their offensive rebounding and putback attack, led by Julius Randle. They match up tonight against the 4th best defensive rebounding team by percentage, likely mitigating those normal extra opportunities.

One area, and a player specifically, the Lakers have an advantage with is KCP running off of screens. He is 0-13 on 3-pointers over his last three games, but he’s been about average there on the season overall. This is an area Utah has been dreadful defending, creating an opportunity for LA to make up for less playmaking on the floor by using set plays to hopefully get Caldwell-Pope some easy looks from downtown or create open options from the defense rotating could supplement the rest of the offense.

Prediction

Vegas has Utah by 11. My model has the Lakers only losing by 6.5 or 7, depending on if Lopez plays. It also projects the Laker offense struggling and Utah’s offense having about an average day at the office, and a final score with both teams in the 90s. Hopefully it’ll be a tight game and we’ll get to see Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart, who all had longer college careers than we typically see, show out. Ultimately, I expect Utah to pull away. But playing a hot playoff team tight while down Ball and Ingram would be a moral victory for LA.

Where you can watch: 6:00pm PST start time on Spectrum Sportsnet.

The post Lakers Game Preview: The Utah Jazz appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

Laker fans will remember Travis Wear from being part of the championship Summer League squad. He’s a power forward, but his role over those 8 games was to spot up (27 points on 22 possessions), pick and pop (8 points on 4 possessions, and knock down shots in transition (14 points in 14 possessions). He shot 42% from deep and was 6/10 on contested 3s. It was a small sample, but was quite a performance from Wear, who exhibited his ability as a floor spacer.

Wear’s Offense

On a much larger sample in the G-League this season he’s also been impressive. He’s 28/49 on open catch and shoot 3s, 57%, as well as 34% on contested ones and 42% on off-the-dribble 3s. The dude can shoot.

Post Play

He’s 6’10”, but is in no way a post player. In fact, he’s only had one more post up than pick and roll ball handler possession (and has been more effective in the pick and roll). He has 25 post ups in 33 games, but his efficiency is only better than 25% of the G-League on those attempts and his statistical profile shows an easily scoutable and very limited repertoire of moves.

• Left Block: Dribbled into a pull up jumper over his right shoulder 9/10 times
• Right Block: 10 jumpers on 12 possessions either after facing up (3 times) or shooting over his right shoulder baseline 7 times

He’s used 1 drop step, 0 hook shots, and 0 up and unders in his post possessions. He doesn’t exactly keep the defense guessing. I don’t expect much usage or production from him in the post.

Spotting Up

Where he likely will be used is as a spot up, floor spacing shooter. It’s been his top play type everywhere he’s been, and he’s been great at it. And he isn’t just a catch and shoot guy. He’s shown an ability to dribble into a pull up and even take the ball to the rim to score efficiently.

About 60% of Travis Wear’s offense is generated between those spot ups and Wear’s transition attempts, where he’s been a rim runner and 43% 3-point shooter.

The Rest of Wear’s Offense

The remaining 40% is split up between about 5 play types taking up ~5% of his offense and then his pick and roll/pop game. Wear’s points per possession is in the 95th percentile when he’s picking and popping, a skill set that will fit in with what Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma, and Channing Frye bring.

Wear is 6th of 11 players that has played in 20+ games for the SBL in net rating. The team’s offense has been about 2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, and the defense has been about 2 points worse.

Wear’s Defense

Wear’s individual defensive statistics aren’t flattering as a primary defender. His largest area of weakness is as a spot up defender, where his positioning gets him in a ton of trouble.

Positioning

Take a look at the diagram below. When the ball is in the corner, the proper positioning for the defender of a player in the opposite corner that you learn in your “shell defense” is to have your head under the rim. If your man is a shooter, maybe a step closer. The idea is to always be in the best position to help, but also to recover to your man in time if a pass goes to them. From corner to corner, you’d have more time, leading to being further over toward the ball. Wear would be 4 in this diagram.

But when when the ball is reversed back up top or a drive is made that’s more toward the elbow than the rim, 4 needs to get closer to his man, since the pass to his man is a quicker one. They should typically go to around the lane line, but closer if your man is a better shooter. Travis Wear’s issue defensively is he’ll get in this under the rim position, but then won’t adjust when the ball moves, leaving him out of position to contest shots when the ball gets to his man.

This has led to more open shots (2nd most of any SBL player) and desperate closeout attempts. And the data lines up with the film. Wear is in the 19th percentile on catch and shoot defense in spot up situations and 9th percentile defense on pull ups. If you aren’t the most fleet of foot, you need to use IQ and positioning to contest shots to contain your man. Wear struggles with that, and it hurts him and the team defensively.

This is an easily fixable issue, so hopefully the coaching staff identifies it in practice.

Rest of Wear’s Defense

Other than that one component, Wear is average everywhere else by the data except for in the post. In those possessions he’s been effective on a small sample. When we go deeper, Wear has been in the 35th percentile defensively in isolation mismatches. This is part of the SBL game plan defensively, and provides insight into how Wear may fare on the parent team in similar situations.

Overall, Wear won’t be adding much to the Laker defense but also doesn’t look like a liability. His off-ball positioning will just need to improve.

Impact on Rotation

Travis Wear is another PF, so how does this affect the rotation? Darius provides some great insight: With Josh Hart being out, we saw Kuzma play SF in big lineups while Ingram played PG next to KCP. I’d imagine Wear being brought on makes those lineups more of a possibility moving forward, and he would be insurance at PF in rotations where Kuzma/Ingram tire, get in foul trouble, or get hurt (like Ingram’s flexor strain).

I think Darius’ is spot on with his assessment. Wear likely won’t get much time on the court in normal situations if everyone is healthy. But when something goes wrong, he’s a good option that can space the floor off the bench that’ll hit open shots. His defense won’t be a difference maker, but it also doesn’t appear as though it will be a major concern. Wear look like a good signing for LA.

The post Lakers News: Travis Wear 10-Day Contract appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

57 games are in the books and the Lakers are 7 games out of the playoffs. In a year without any incentive to lose but also without a realistic shot at the playoffs, it’s a year to focus on growth. Many seasons are defined by winning or losing. For LA, this one is different. The process and smaller details are where LA can find wins and growth. With that in mind, here are the stats and trends that have stood out to me so far this season.

Offense

1. 1. The Lakers lead the league in transition frequency, with it accounting for 19.5% of their offense. The Warriors are a close second at 19.3%.
   2. LA’s transition offense started out pretty crummy, but has steadily improved since, to the point where it’s now above average. Here is a 15-game rolling average of the team’s transition CPOE:
   3. LA’s half court offense has never been average for a 15-game stretch (by CPOE) and also doesn’t quite have the same upward trend that the transition offense has:
   4. Brandon Ingram has had 74 more isolation possessions than Kyle Kuzma so far this season (133 to 59). If we gave Kuz 74 possessions to have him be even with Ingram’s 133, he would only need to  score 0.595 points per possession on those possessions to tie Ingram. 0.595 PPP would be the lowest isolation efficiency in the league. It’s safe to say that Kuzma has been a far superior isolation player this season.
   5. 419 NBA players have had at least as many offensive possessions as Isaiah Thomas on the Lakers. Of those 419 players, only Andrew Bogut has turned the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions than Thomas, who has a 29.5% turnover rate in LA.
   6. The Lakers pass the sixth least of any NBA team with 285.9 passes per game. Interestingly enough, the teams that pass less than LA are the Bucks, Cavs, Trail Blazers, Rockets, and Thunder.
   7. Kyle Kuzma has been the most efficient post player in the league among the 81 players with at least as many possessions as him. Randle is 30th and Lopez 69th on that list.
   8. The Lakers are tied with the fourth lowest pass out percentage on drives at 27.4%, only better than Portland, Phoenix, and New York. I’d venture to guess this has to do with a lack of movement and off-ball action during plays.
   9. 154 players in the NBA have had at least 50 pick and roll ball handler possessions this season. Lonzo is 143rd in efficiency, Ennis is 147th, and KCP is 152nd. Ingram is 110th, the best mark among remaining Laker guards. Isaiah Thomas was 83rd in his time in Cleveland.
   10. Brandon Ingram’s closest role comparison is as a “Glue Guy,” based on his play type frequencies. If he were to keep his same efficiencies in those play types but change his role to a “Reluctant Shooter,” among the likes of Otto Porter Jr., Kyle Anderson, Andre Iguodala, James Ennis, Jeff Green, Jaylen Brown, and Justin Anderson, his CPOE would improve from -0.8 (19th percentile) to -0.1 (51st percentile). There are several other wing roles that would also improve his impact based on his current efficiencies, and you can use the roles adjuster tool here in the Player Comps tab to try those changes for any NBA player in any of the 18 roles.
   11. Josh Hart at Villanova had more than triple the Off Screen possessions his senior year (in 21 less games) compared to what he’s had so far this season. On those possessions, he was *the* most efficient scorer in college basketball. Using the role adjuster tool, changing his role from a Glue Guy to an Off Ball Worker would almost double his CPOE.

Defense

1. And when it comes to defense, LA started out well for a brief period of time but hasn’t been average over a 15-game stretch for more than half of the season so far. Remember that positive DPOE values are bad, and negative ones are good. Luke Walton deserves credit for a vastly improved defense from the past couple years, but we have yet to see the defense return to its early season form. Over the last 55% of the pre-ASG games, the team’s +1.3 DPOE would place them tied for 21st in defense. Before that point, over the first 45% of pre-ASG games, the defense was 9th best.
2. The Lakers defense has given up 53.1 points more than expected in the three game stretch with Isaiah Thomas based on the play types defended and league average PPP on those play types, the worst three game period of the season
3. The three games before Isaiah Thomas was a Laker, the team conceded 56 points less than expected, the best three game period of the season.
4. How much do the Lakers rotate? A lot. On defense, the Lakers run 8.44 miles per game, highest of all teams (and they’re 12th in transition defense frequency, so it’s not all because of that).
5. The Lakers are tied for 7th least among all teams in box outs per game, which matches up well with what we’re seeing in games (as stats tend to do). They benefit from guards crashing down to grab boards to help the rebounding defensively, but some improvement in this key fundamental area could help the defense jump from good to great.
6. By team POE, the Lakers have had the 8th most difficult schedule so far. Their remaining strength of schedule is 15th.

G-League

1. Thomas Bryant has been the most efficient player in the G-League, and has been the most efficient roll man, transition player, scorer on putbacks, and scorer at the rim (on non post ups).
2. Ivica Zubac has been the most efficient post player in the G-League
3. Gary Payton II has struggled in LA for both teams. He’s had a couple nice games, but overall is in the 12th and 17th percentiles by his points per possession on offense and defense for the Lakers, and is in the 19th and 16th percentiles during his time on the South Bay Lakers.

Those are some of the noteworthy stats that stuck out to me when reviewing the team’s progress so far this season. There’s some good and still a ton of room for development. It’ll be worth keeping an eye out on how the defense fares moving forward with Isaiah Thomas, Brandon Ingram’s role, appearances from Zu/Bryant, and if the half court offense can get back on track.

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Just like the team’s record and performance on the court, the numbers through this recent stretch have generally been trending upward. Let’s take a look at some Lakers data from the team’s 5-point win against Chicago on Friday.

Lakers Offense

The Lakers won the areas they were expected to win.

On my last preview podcast I took a look at how the Lakers matched up with the Bulls based on their data so far this season. When comparing the efficiency of both teams by play type, there were three areas where the Lakers had a clear advantage: transition, in the post, and on putbacks. And the advantage in transition was HUGE against the worst transition defense in the league.

And that’s where they dominated.  LA struggled off of screens, spotting up, and in isolation, as expected. But they were able to pull this game out through dominating in the areas they had the advantage.

Post Ups

The Lakers had 20 points from the post, their highest output on the season. If you had a sneaky suspicion that Brook playing against his brother had something to do with this you’d be correct. But, intentionally or not, it was also a matchup against one of the worst post defenders in the NBA and one of the few areas the Lakers matched up well against Chicago. It worked out to be a good strategy move and also one of those “go get em” games for Brook against his brother.

Spot Up Shooting

Some areas of LA’s performance have increased as the season has gone on, but their spot up shooting has taken a nosedive. Here is a 10-game rolling average chart showing the spot up shooting game CPOE data.

Anything above zero is a stretch of 10 games where the team was shooting above average on average.

Transition

One of the areas the Lakers have trended in the right direction on is transition. Starting with game 15 against Philadelphia, LA has been trending in the right direction. But only recently have they been able to finally turn those 23 transition possessions per game into above average transition scoring.

This will be a key moving forward. LA scoring a lot in transition inefficiency was still better offense than their half court offense. If they can lead the league in transition frequency and also do so efficiently, that’s suddenly a big difference maker. This game’s 8.8 points of scoring above average is a great showing of what that can do and how it can overcome horrific half court offense (84 points per 100 possessions in the half court!).

Lakers Defense

The only two areas where Chicago matched up well against LA were in the post and in transition. They were 4 points above average in transition, but the Lakers were sound in so many other areas (including the post) that it wasn’t enough. LA made the third worst scheme by my scheme ratings look like they had the third worst scheme.

Randle

Play 1

I saw some individuals on Twitter ripping into Randle for this play, but it was really just Chicago countering LA’s big to big switching perfectly. Randle is anticipating Markkanen running off of the screen set to run to the top of the key (right by Kuz), just like Chicago had done on their previous play to get an open shot for Holiday after some screen the screener action (a cross screen followed by a down screen).

But Markkanen didn’t run off of the screen. He didn’t go near Kuz. In fact, the screen is set on Kuzma, not Randle. Chicago knew LA was going to switch that, and had Markkanen fade out and had the screener look to screen Kuzma rather than Randle in order to get an open shot. Randle is anticipating just having to watch the screener while Kuzma takes care of Lauri. Kuzma is being screener. Chicago gets an knocks down an open shot (they were 6/6 on open 3s for the day).

Play 2

And on this play, Randle isn’t the most at fault either. On a big/big screen, LA had been switching. So normally, this would be an automatic switch and Brook would be on Markkanen.

But on this play, notice how Robin both sets the ball screen and sets the flare screen. This is a great adjustment by Chicago, who saw a couple plays previously that LA was having Lopez drop off on ball screens at that wing. They knew that Lopez would stick with Grant until the guard recovered, because LA doesn’t want Lopez switching onto that but also needs to have him contain the ball handler and prevent him from getting to the rim.

On this play, notice how Grant (the ball handler) never even tries to turn the corner and isn’t even looking at the rim. He’s dribbling to the corner on this called play, trying to drag Lopez along as much as he can, waiting for the flare to be set.

So Randle is left fighting through the screen a half second late because he normally would just need to yell “switch” and his responsibility would be Robin Lopez. Once he realizes the switch isn’t happening, he does everything he can to fight through the screen and is actually able to contest the shot well.

So to summarize, the “lazy” or “slow” defense by Randle was due to a well-designed counter by Hoiberg that took advantage of the way LA had been defending, putting Randle at a disadvantaged position and forcing him to need to go outside the normal defensive gameplan to play good defense on the play. And he did a great job once he realized it.

Miscellaneous

LA completely shut the second worst offense in the league down in this game, which was expected. Where Chicago was able to make its CPOE look a little better was with several miscellaneous possessions. Chicago got 2 free throw points on a foul of a slipping player who didn’t have the ball yet, and 6 points from two 3-pointers off of inbounds passes. But other than that, the Lakers did what they were supposed to do.

In Other News: Gary Payton II Had a Triple Double

My first reaction:

And then I looked at the film. Here are my notes:

• Payton needs to work on his post entries. He threw the ball straight out of bounds three separate times. His angles of entry were bad on all three. That’s a simple fix, but one that if not addressed can be costly due to the high probability of turnovers on those kinds of bad entry passes.
• The South Bay Lakers did a nice job using Payton as a cutter. Their shooting and spacing is generally very good, and they used well executed weak side UCLA cuts away from the primary action to catch the defense off-guard and get Payton four different wide open shots at the rim.
• Payton was 0/2 on open catch and shoot 3-pointers, but was able to knock one down off the dribble after the defense went under a screen and then let watched him take the 3. If he can knock that shot down with some consistency it’ll open up a lot more in his pick and roll game, because right now defenses can go under screens and shut down his pick and roll game pretty easily the same way we saw defenses guard Lonzo earlier in the year.
• The defense wasn’t pretty. On his six defensive possessions as the primary defender:
  • He fell asleep on a flare screen and didn’t switch like the SB Lakers had been, leaving a shooter wide open
  • GP2 was beaten badly defending a pick and roll
  • He tried to pick off a pass to the corner when he was the wing defender that he had no chance intercepting, leaving himself out of position to defend his own man (who knocked down the 3)
  • Payton tried to jump a pass to his man and was blown by, but his length showed up and he was able to back tip the ball away and force a turnover
  • His man blew by him after he reached in and got a layup because of it
  • He tried to jump the pass to his man and was blown by because of it

So while he did have a triple double, and facilitated and rebounded well, he’s still been the same player with the same faults that we saw at Oregon State, in the G-League, and in limited time with the parent Lakers team.

The post Lakers Data Report: Bulls Game appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

The Lakers offense changes without Lonzo, both schematically and in terms of energy. Little staggering of lineups by Luke Walton has made it more difficult for the new mashups of the first and second units to succeed quickly. Adding Hayes to the picture also muddles the chemistry of lineups, but this is an opportunity for LA to work through those growing pains and try to come together to beat a team who has won five of seven games and has one of the best offenses in the league.

The key to winning this game will be slowing down Indiana offensively. The Lakers’ offense has been below average in 13 of the last 15 games. What they’ll need to lean on is their defense, which has kept them in games all season and has been great, other than that six game stretch without Lonzo. He didn’t have everything to do with that stretch being so rough, but he is a big part of this defense and the drop off from him to his backups is large defensively. Lonzo does have the third highest DRPM of all point guards, and Jacob Goldstein’s Adjustable Player Impact Plus-Minus tool has LA 8.4 points better defensively per 100 possessions with Lonzo on the floor. We’re going to need a real team effort to turn that around and defend well enough to stay in this game, and a lot of that will be on whoever between Clarkson, Ennis, Caruso, and Payton is playing point for LA.

Oh Hay(es)

We (or at least I) want Nigel. And we’ll probably get him. The new Laker is only on a ten day contract, so the clock is ticking for LA to decide if he’s a valuable piece or if they should start looking for the next ten day G-Leauge player.

Hayes will likely be slotting in at the SF position with the backup unit. Something like a lineup of Payton/Caruso-Clarkson-Hayes-Kuzma-Nance is where we’ll probably see him most, with Hart and Ennis likely joining the starters.

Hayes will probably give LA a couple spot up looks and perhaps a post up or two. I’d use him as a spot up shooter and also in the post as a facilitator first, then letting him go to work if the passes aren’t there. Set plays like this one we’ve seen recently should work well.

This play is also nice against Indiana especially because Thaddeus Young, whose defense will be tested with this play with him defending the 4 (Kuzma), is a poor off-ball defender. He has a tendency to fall asleep, and post feeds for a team that normally just stands and watches in the post is a great way to lull him to sleep and strike.

Xs and Os: What Indiana Will Try To Do

The Pacers’ offense is a rather simple one. There isn’t much going on in terms of set plays with off screen or handoff actions. A lot of their offense is generated through pick and roll plays with Victor Oladipo as their ball handler. From those chances, he’ll generate lots of shots for himself, as well as kickouts and dump offs.

Oladipo does a nice job attacking the rim, but is also a smart player and finds the short roll man well. That’s a place where Sabonis has recently thrived since Myles Turner recently went down. He’s taken a step forward with his decision making in those situations and Indiana is profiting off of it.

One play I did see on film scouting Indiana for my podcast game preview, the Locked on Pacers game preview, and this piece, is a play I’d call “54 Dribble Flip.” It’s a mediocre set play, but one that should be effective against a switching Laker defense.

The play starts out in a horns setup, with the wings at the corners and the bigs at the elbows. Sabonis will set a screen for Young, who pops out to receive the ball. If LA doesn’t switch this, it might be a catch and shoot 3-pointers for Young. If Lopez helps out too far, he’s leaving an open lane for Sabonis (5) to cut to the rim for a lob after setting the screen. This is the “54” part of the play name (5 screens for 4).

So let’s assume LA switches. Collison passes the ball to Young.

After the pass, Collison will clear out to the (soon to be) opposite corner. Bogdanovic will raise to the wing, and Sabonis will set up at the (soon to be) opposite block waiting for a dump off. Turner will dribble over to Oladipo in the corner to hand off the ball. This is the “dribble” part of the play name.

If it’s overplayed, Oladipo will back cut the coverage and potentially have a dunk. If it’s not switched, there’s no help defense and likely either Oladipo will be able to turn the corner or Young will have an open roll. So let’s assume LA switches this as well.

So now Oladipo is attacking Lopez (who was switched onto Young (4)) and Young is looking to either pop or bury LA’s shooting guard in the post. This will be great against Lopez’s relative lack of footspeed compared to the rest of the Laker bigs. It would’ve been great against KCP if he were to play (he’s injured) and his post defense that has given up 22 makes on 28 shots this year. Clarkson has also been poor in the post this year defensively (23rd percentile post PPP), but Josh Hart (46th percentile) should be able to hold his ground a little better.

This is a specific play we’ll likely see, but the idea of attacking LA’s switches with Oladipo drives against bigs and Indiana’s bigs posting up LA down low when they have mismatches is something the Pacers have shown they will do and will have the opportunity to do.

Prediction

With Lonzo, this would be a tough but winnable game. Without Lonzo and KCP, I don’t like our chances. My model, taking into account the Lonzo, KCP, and Turner injuries and the backups playing more because of those injuries, Indiana on a back to back, and the game being in LA has Indiana by 4.

That’s a lot closer than I thought it’d be. The spread (at the time I’m writing this) is Indiana by 2. I’d probably guess Pacers by 6.

Where you can watch: 7:30 pm PST start time on Spectrum Sportsnet.

The post Lakers Game Preview: The Indiana Pacers appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

Lakers Offense

This was LA’s highest CPOE performance on the year, scoring 128 points when they’d be only expected to score 112.5. We’ll focus mostly on the offense today, because there was a lot of good that came out of this game.

Transition

LA went OFF in transition. Here’s their shot chart:

They had some errors, but the issues that certain players with hyphens in their name were minimal and the team was knocking down shots.

This was a special transition performance, but the general transition offense has been improving consistently. LA started off the year looking completely inept in transition, even when they had a 1-2 man advantage. Here is their 10 game rolling transition CPOE:

LA has consistently improved since their dreadful start. There were some bumps along the way, but the trend is clear.

The Lakers are at an interesting point in the year. For the first time since their initial plummet, their 10 game rolling average is at 0.0. The transition offense is still 24th in points per possession on the year, but if the team’s efficiency ascent continues they’ll consistently be having above average transition games and that rank will rise.

Off Screen

Today’s the day. Or yesterday was, I guess. LA had their best performance for off screen opportunities on the year, and, to me, their most encouraging.

It wasn’t their most points or their best CPOE on that play type. It wasn’t even a top five game in terms of volume of possessions. But it was their best game in terms of creativity and design of sets, which plays a big role on their success.

Play 1: Cross Punch Flare

Here’s the first play we’ll look at. Lonzo passes to Julius and then posts his man up just inside the 3-point line and catches the ball at the 3-point line. Lopez walks over toward the opposite block.

Lopez then sets a cross screen for Ingram, who receives the post feed from Lonzo. Randle then sets a flare screen for KCP, who receives the pass from Ingram looking to catch and shoot from 3. And Lopez clears out to the opposite side of the court to space out for 3.

Here’s how the play worked in real life:

It’s a great play design because it plays off of the Lakers’ weaknesses and how teams usually defend LA and converts the weaknesses into strengths.

Lopez is a big body that can (or should be able to) set screens well, so he’s setting a cross screen. It’s a two position gap from Lopez to Ingram, so a switch would allow LA to exploit the defense with mismatches. Lopez then clears out for 3, which if there’s no switch will remove rim protection and allow Ingram to have some privacy in the post, which isn’t something you want if you’re the defense.

Thankfully for them, Randle isn’t a threat from the perimeter, so he makes the perfect player to help off of. And that’s what the Lakers are planning on. If Randle’s man lets himself sag into the paint, Randle setting a flare screen for KCP will result in a wide open 3-point opportunity (if the screen is set well (it is this time)). And Ingram is a good size to be able to pass out from the post if Randle’s man helps down hard on the post. It’s a perfect play design.

This is an A+ play design where every player is moving and every player is a threat. It’ll get open 3s and also help isolate Ingram in the post if defenses catch onto the play and play it for the flare and completely leave Ingram down low.

Play 2: Fist Detroit

This play is music to my ears. It truly is brilliantly designed. Every player is moving, and all five players are working together. When I talk about synergistic movement and action, this is a great example of that.

The roll man (5) will need to be tagged by a help defender unless there’s a switch (leading to mismatches LA can attack) or the big man plays drop coverage, which allows the Laker point guard (1) to get into the paint going downhill. Any sort of hard hedge or blitz (double) of the ball handler will necessitate that help coming over.

So who is helping to stop the roll man (5 in the diagram)? It’d be 4’s defender. When he steps over to help, he’s out of place to help 2’s defender guard 2 on the “Detroit” action flare screen. 3 drops to the corner, dragging his man down into the corner.

This is the result:

Atlanta ends up with two men on Ennis, who handles the pressure well. Two players there means that Kuzma’s defender needs to help tag Nance to prevent an easy dunk. Ingram drops to the corner, dragging his man down. And KCP runs perfectly off of the flare screen and is wide open. He misses the shot, but this is an A+ play and the best one I’ve seen from the Lakers all season in terms of play design.

This is another play from the same game that’s similar in terms of alignment and the method of attack. The main (decoy) attack is putting pressure on the defense to stop Lonzo and Nance. Kuzma’s man drops in to help out, leaving Clarkson wide open when Kuz sets the Detroit flare screen.

In both scenarios, that pick and roll is critical. Without that initial misdirection pressure on the defense, the flare screen is far easier to defend. Sell out on the flare (which teams will start doing once the play is scouted) and LA will still have a real threat with the pick and roll and roll man. This is the type of play that “occupies the help defense” if they play the flare. It’s something that both plays have in common.

If the Lakers continue using these types of plays, they’ll be successful on their off screen opportunities and score better in their pick and roll plays. Not surprisingly, the team’s pick and roll ball handler scoring CPOE of +7.3 was their best CPOE performance on the season. That’s what weak side motion can do.

Lakers Defense

LA had their worst 6-game defensive stretch of the year, but have followed it up by an above average defensive performance and now an average defensive performance since Lonzo’s return. Lopez has also helped. The team has rotated better and seems to be playing much harder.

Atlanta shot 46% (6/13) on guarded 3s this game and 3/9 on open ones when catching and shooting.

Dennis Schröder

Schröder certainly scored well in this game, putting up 27 of Atlanta’s 112. But how much more efficient was he than to be expected? Here’s his player profile from my interactive data spreadsheet for the full season before the game in Los Angeles.

And here is how he performed against LA. Lots of pick and roll, just like normal. Tons of efficiency there, and even more than he usually has in his highest CPOE area on the season.

His overall usage was typical, and his 1.1 CPOE on the game is higher than his average but within an expected normal range. It was a good game from a good player, but it wasn’t anywhere near enough.

Atlanta has been the team most underperforming their play in terms of their record going into Sunday’s game. They’ve graded out better than LA on the year, but LA’s decisive win Sunday will hopefully get LA playing less like the 22 win team LA had been playing like going into Sunday. It’s all up from here, and LA is trending in the right direction in several key areas. The Lakers might be fun again.

The post Lakers Data Report: Hawks Game appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that the Lakers may be signing soon to be former Los Angeles Clipper Jamil Wilson.

Assuming he clears waivers today, the Lakers are strong front-runners to sign forward Jamil Wilson to a 10-day contract, league sources tell ESPN.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) January 8, 2018

So who is Wilson, where should we expect him to contribute, and is this a smart move by the Lakers?

Who is Wilson?

Jamil went to college at Oregon and then transferred to Marquette. He had a solid junior season for the Golden Eagles and was the team’s second leading scorer his senior year.

Wilson has spent time for several D/G-League teams, has played for several years in Puerto Rico and Italy, and has had stints on Summer League teams. He finally had some sustained time for an NBA team this season with the Clippers, where he has appeared in 15 games and started 10.

What does he do?

Jamil Wilson is a 6’7″ small forward but plays like a stretch 4. Here are his aggregated play type frequencies from his G-League and NBA data:

Wilson likes to spot up, pick and pop, and will also isolate and post up. He doesn’t run the pick and roll as a pick and roll ball handler, use handoffs, or work off of screens nearly as much as 3s usually are. He also doesn’t post up, get putbacks, or have as many dump off cutting possessions as 4s typically do. He’s a 3 that plays like a stretch 4.

Based on that breakdown of play types, here are Wilson’s top offensive style player comparisons:

That’s not to say he’s as good or has the potential or efficiency as those players. This is purely based on those play type frequencies above.

But regardless, Wilson looks like the type of player that LA could use. He also shot 40.5% from deep for the Clippers and their G-Leauge affiliate this year, which is much needed for the Lakers. Having a “finisher” type of player that will spot up or pick and pop to catch and shoot and hit at an above average rate would be fantastic for LA.

He also has above average driving data but his pull up shooting is below average. He almost never rolls in the pick and roll, and likely won’t be active inside much at all. He’s scoring more points per shot than 65 percent of the league on mid ranged jumpers and 86 percent on short jumpers.

Wilson’s ultimate success will come from making or missing shots. He’s not a creator or a playmaker. He won’t be pounding teams inside or active on the glass. What he does is catch and shoot.

Wilson’s Defense

Wilson does not show up in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus database, but we do have Synergy data for him from his G-Leauge and NBA time. This type of data will only cover his primary defense, not how well he protects the rim as a help defender or how he is as a help defender in other areas.

It’s not looking good from the data. Wilson is in the 23rd, 20th, and 30th percentiles in his three G-League stints. If he can’t defend well at that level, it’ll be hard to trust his defense against a higher level of competition.

Wilson is a very poor interior defender as someone defending drives and post ups. Based on that, I’d venture to guess his help defense inside isn’t anything that’s deterring drives.

Based on his numbers, he looks like an average spot up defender. He has good data facing pick and roll ball handlers that are his men as well as containing ball handlers as the screener’s man.

From all of this, Wilson looks like he’d have success in the Lakers’ heavy switching defense when forced to stick with guards for a little bit, but won’t fare so well if switched onto a big man and is mismatched down low.

We can look at Clipper on-off data for added context. Wilson has been on the court for 274 minutes for the other LA team. During that time, the Clippers have a defensive rating (points given up per 100 possessions) of 104.1. When he’s off the court, that number is 107.0. That means that the Clippers’ defense has been 2.9 points better per 100 possessions when Wilson is on the floor.

That’s seventh best for the Clippers on the season. That info is good, but it is also on a small sample and is also impacted greatly by lineups (especially at a smaller sample). So it’s encouraging, but don’t put too much weight into it.

Overall

Overall, I’m happy with the signing. LA needed shooting, and they got it. Wilson is very much a guy that will fit in offensively and help add spacing to the team with his shooting. Defensively he has weaknesses, but should be able to survive and succeed in a wing role. He might not pan out, but Wilson is worth a 10-day contract based on his body of work and potential to add shooting to the team.

The post Who is Jamil Wilson? appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

People change. Are you the same you were a year ago? Are you spending your time the same ways? A year ago I hadn’t even considered writing or podcasting, and used Twitter rather passivey. I’d say I’m mostly the same person but with more experience and smarts and have used my time rather differently.

NBA players can be the same way. Some may be in a steady relationship of usage year to year. Others make changes that result in higher efficiency or roles that better suit their skill sets. Others don’t.

There are five key Lakers who have changed teams from last season to this one. Two were free agent signings, three were draft picks. Here’s how those same faces look in their new places.

Lonzo Ball

Lonzo has had quite a change from last year to this one. At UCLA, he facilitated well in transition and within UCLA’s halfcourt sets. Where he generated his offense was from spotting up, the pick and roll, cutting, isolation, handoffs, and scoring via off-ball screens.

Pre-draft, I tweeted how Lonzo’s usage better matched a shooting guard than a point guard, and the data reflected that. But no longer.

All but one of those play types have decreased this season. Meanwhile, Lonzo’s pick and roll ball handler possessions have skyrocketed.

These changes have resulted in a lower expected efficiency from Lonzo. Pick and roll ball handler possessions have a lower average point output per possession than isolation. A player’s efficiency drops when 43% of their half court possessions are those kinds of possessions.

Unless Lonzo were to be used in a similar system to UCLA (Golden State would likely be closest by play types), these kinds of shifts in efficiency should be expected.

Kyle Kuzma

Kuzma was not a player at Utah who was creating his own offense. He’s done so even less with the Lakers (and I’m not complaining).

I’m happy to see Kuz posting up less. His value as a shooter, especially on this roster, demands he be in positions to stretch the floor as more a perimeter player. Overall, I’m pleased with the way he’s being used.

Having a high efficiency player that is a “finisher” of possessions is valuable to have and fits well alongside playmakers and superstar players. He’d fit well in teams using set plays to open up shots for him as well. Essentially, Kuz is the type of player that fits everywhere, including this specific Lakers team and a Lakers team with LeBron/George/Cousins/etc.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

KCP has made a large shift this season in terms of how he gets his offense. He hasn’t had the highest decrease from primary to secondary offense, but he’s the only player who used to have a majority of their possessions come from that primary creation to now being a majority secondary player.

Pope has not been a great facilitator or scorer out of the pick and roll or off of handoffs. He’s in the 11th percentile as a pick and roll scorer, and his passouts there have resulted in possessions in the 22nd percentile. His handoff possession efficiency is in the 45th percentile.

Those two areas have declined while the one large benefactor has been his off screen usage. An 11.1% increase in an area he’s scoring 1.026 PPP (56th percentile) has been fantastic to see. His spot up shooting has also increased.

KCP has been a 28th percentile efficiency jump shooter on the season, but I’m preferring his usage this year compared to what last year’s Pope would do for this team.

Brook Lopez

With a 92.4% similarity score, Lopez has been very similar to the player he was last season in Brooklyn, but there have been a couple key differences. Brook has picked and popped a lot more than last season (this falls under the PnR RM (roll man) category), posted up far less than last season, and isolated less than last year.

I’m always a fan of less iso. And post ups as well. Those are two of the lowest expected PPP play types. Only 9 of 293 Laker iso possessions being from Lopez still comes as a surprise, but those possessions going to Ingram or Clarkson or Kuzma is fine with me. But if we’re just looking at a Lopez possession being in isolation vs popping, I’ll side with those higher value shots.

Lopez’s offensive possessions have often left Laker fans frustrated, but it’s better than it could be. He’s taken more of a back seat compared to last year and with the specific realignment of usage his expected points per possession has risen, albeit at the lowest level of the four other players we’re looking at that had an increase.

Josh Hart

Hart’s sharp decline in primary action usage does not come as a surprise. The player getting the highest number of possessions for a college team with a 4.3% isolation frequency moving up to be a “plays within the offense” role player should look like’s Hart’s profile with the Lakers.

Hart post ups being down makes sense because:

1. He was bad at them at Villanova (15th percentile)
2. Luke Walton doesn’t like to post up his guards *cough DLo cough*
3. It’s hard to post up your guards when you have non-shooters like Bogut, Nance, and Randle on the floor

The off screen frequency decreasing isn’t what I’d like to see. Hart was the most efficient college basketball player on off screen opportunities at Villanova and is playing behind KCP (who has been used off screens for 23.9% of his possessions), yet is not being utilized in this way nearly at all.

It wouldn’t hurt LA to run some quick hitter pin downs for Hart every once in a while. Hart is a good shooter (and was great in those situations at Villanova), and those attacks take just a couple seconds to launch. If they don’t work, the offense can keep moving for the remaining 17 seconds or so.

That’s what has happened, but what do you think should happen? What are your ideal breakdowns for each player? Have they moved in the right direction? Would you have prefered to see last year’s usage of these players on this Lakers team?

The post Same Faces, New Places: Lakers Usage appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

Hello! Welcome to this edition of the Lakers post game data report, where the basketball is bad and the numbers are worse. Today we find our Los Angeles Lakers with a body of work and remaining schedule (including rest days & injuries) that result in a 24 game win projection. Tribute to Kobe aside, that’s a really bad sign.

Lakers Offense

Thunder Game

The Lakers scored 96 points. An average team would be expected to score 117.4 points. That’s about a three touchdown difference. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

Isolation

LA had a poor game against OKC in isolation. First, here’s the shot chart for their 10 isolation possessions.

And here is what happened on each of those possessions:

1. Randle: Semi-open mid-range jump shot, 7 seconds left on shot clock, 2 points
2. Lopez: Heavily contested mid-range jump shot, 2 seconds left, 0 points
3. Clarkson: Open long 3-pointer vs switch, 7 seconds left, 0 points
4. Ingram: Stripped on drive vs switch, 17 seconds left, 0 points
5. KCP: Contested drive vs PG-13, 10 seconds left, 0 points
6. Ingram: Pass deflected and stolen on failed drive, 12 seconds left, 0 points
7. Ennis: Blocked at rim vs switch, 8 seconds left, 0 points
8. Randle: Stripped going up for inside shot, 5 seconds left, 0 points
9. Clarkson: Made drive +1 after blow by and spin move, 18 seconds left, 3 points
10. Clarkson: Missed shot on drive vs switch, 15 seconds left, 0 points

I’d say that the fifth possession is outright unacceptable. It was from a player in the 27th percentile in isolation efficiency, was a contested shot against a great defender, and was done with plenty of time left on the shot clock to run a pick and roll or at least find a better iso matchup.

Many of the possessions yielded no points, but I suppose one can’t be too critical of the team attacking switches on four of the ten isolations. Getting to the rim on many of the possessions is also something that would expect to produce more points. The isolation efficiency is disappointing, but most of the possessions were either a late shot clock shot or attacking a switch.

Pick and Roll

Between the ball handler, roll man, and pass out to spot up shots, the Lakers scored 11.4 points below the expectation from their pick and roll derived possessions. The breakdown of those possessions were 14 ball handler possessions, 9 from roll men, and 10 spot up possessions.

Hornets Game

Is shooting 0/13 on open catch and shoot half court 3-pointers good? Asking for a friend.

I can tell you that shooting 44.4% (8/18) on contested catch and shoot 3-pointers is good. The Lakers also did that. This offense is an enigma. Had LA shot just 5/13 instead of 0/13 on open shots from downtown (38%) and this is a completely different game.

Those missed open 3-pointers belonged to:

• Ennis x3
• Lonzo x2
• Lopez x2
• Hart x2
• KCP x2
• Clarkson
• Brewer

Ennis has shot very poorly this season and Brewer isn’t a good 3-point shooter, but even 1/4 from those two and 3/9 from the rest of the group changes the game.

Lakers Defense

Thunder Game

*Insert more screaming here*

After reviewing film and data from the game, there’s not a lot of value I can add. LA stopped competing. It’s interesting to see the areas the Lakers did better with were ones like isolation, post defense and putbacks, areas where the individual Laker defenders were directly challenged. The areas LA struggled with most were off screen, spot up, and the pick and roll ball handler and roll man possessions, which usually require team efforts and communication.

Hornets Game

There were several positives from the most recent Laker loss. One of them was the half court defense. LA held Charlotte’s half court game to 14.4 points below the expectation.

Transition

Charlotte couldn’t be stopped in transition, but it wasn’t as discouraging as the data would indicate. The Hornets just hit pretty much every shot they took. Many were well contested. Several were defended poorly, but it had a much different feel than the Thunder game. The whole defense did.

Dwight Howard

Just for fun, here’s how Howard was offensively for the game. His season average is -0.8 points, so he was just a little worse than his usual 21st percentile output offensively. He wasn’t effective as a roll man, in iso, or posting up. Where he did his damage was on dump offs (cuts) and putbacks.

Overall, Howard’s 1.000 point per possession is nothing to scoff at. He essentially single handedly did the damage in two fo the three half court play types Charlotte scored at least a point above expectation in.

The post Lakers Data Report: Thunder and Hornets Games appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

The Lakers data from this one isn’t pretty. The offense is nowhere near even being average, but it’s not a huge surprise considering the personnel the team is running out on the court. Tyler Ennis, Corey Brewer, Alex Caruso, Vander Blue, Ivica Zubac, and Andrew Bogut are all players you probably don’t want receiving minutes in your rotation if you’re to be a competitive team. They’re currently making up six of LA’s 12 rotation players.

Lakers Offense

Another game, another horrific half court performance. LA seems to consistently scoring double digits less than an average offense would score on the same opportunities. This time it was about 15 points the Lakers failed to score.

Pick and Miss

40% of LA’s half court offense was a pick and roll possession or possession derived from a pick and roll pass. This is an 18% augmentation from the team’s normal output from pick and roll plays. Against Minnesota, LA scored 0.676 PPP on those possessions and 0.862 PPP on all other half court possessions. Shots following pick and roll pass outs were almost always guarded and infrequently went in, and 25% of these possessions resulted in turnovers.

It seems as though Brandon Ingram is much better suited to attack a compromised defense off of a spot up than he is to dribble off a pick, cross over and weave back into the teeth of the defense, and then try to use his length. The Lakers are in a better place when Ingram is the man attacking downhill when his man helps off of him, not Corey Brewer.

Where the Lakers did find success was on their pick and pop plays with Kyle Kuzma. Kuz converted several times and has done a nice job running to the 3-point line after screening to put the defense in a tough decision. This was one of the few offensive bright spots for Los Angeles Monday, and produced their highest performing CPOE area.

Off Screen

LA didn’t run much in terms of set plays with off screen action, but those plays were successful. One BLOB play resulted in a nice shot for Clarkson. A simple pin gave Kuz an open catch and shoot 3 that he buried. A staggered screen for Clarkson resulted in a poor closeout and let JC get into the paint with the defense scrambling.

LA also ran the Hawk Stagger play that the Thunder run frequently to get a pick and roll going at the same time as a staggered screen. The screen setting was terrible, so the play’s effectiveness wasn’t fantastic. But it’s a good play that I’d love to see LA continue to try to use.

These possessions make me happy because they generated good shot opportunities. Unfortunately for LA, these possessions are few and far between, and the team also often executes poorly on their sets (they set bad screens), nullifying effectiveness of actions.

Spot Up

16 of the 20 half court catch and shoot 3-point attempts the Lakers took were contested. This is a great gauge to tell us that good offensive possessions were not being generated. Pretty much all of these were on spot up opportunities.

Play Type Frequencies

I feel like a broken record, but set plays with off screen actions, or the lack of them, has hurt this offense. The team seems to go through 3-4 game stretches where they seem to figure it out, then don’t, then do again.

This is one of those dark times, but I’m not sure Lonzo has all that much to do with it. LA had 5, 9, 8, and 7 off screen possessions in the previous four game Lonzo was absent. This game they had 3. The last time LA had fewer possessions than Monday’s game was November 3rd against Brooklyn.

The team’s handoff possessions, which had been increasing as they ran more sets, have gone back down since Lonzo went down. That continued Monday.

Lakers Defense

The defense was able to hold their ground this game after several very poor performances in a row. In fact, had the offense just scored their expected points this would be an 111-111 game. You have to be pleased with a +2 DPOE performance against a team that has been as successful as Minnesota (6th best CPOE on the year).

Here is the expected play type volume and point breakdown from the “Team Matchup” tab tool in our Forum Blue & Gold NBA data spreadsheet:

Some areas are pretty close, others not as close. LA was able to hold Minnesota from putbacks more than expected but gave up more on those putbacks as well as in iso than anticipated. I’ll be fine tuning this tool to try to produce the best projections game to game. Feel free to use the tool and see which areas area exploitable and may play a big role in each specific matchup.

Isolation

I mentioned before the game that LA might have success if they could bait Andrew Wiggins, who has been incredibly inefficient so far this season in isolation, to spend some TWolves possessions in iso. Unfortunately, he only amassed one possession and converted that chance for two points. Jimmy Butler was able to go to work and convert well in iso, as did Jamal Crawford.

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